Brazil will need to diversify destinations amid Chinese safeguards

Researchers at Cepea warn that, despite operating at record production levels, Brazil’s livestock sector faces a new challenge following the safeguards applied by China to imported beef.

The combination of quotas and tariffs makes it necessary to broaden marketing alternatives, both abroad and domestically, to avoid bottlenecks in commercialization.

According to Cepea’s analysis, under the current protection scheme Brazil could quickly reach the quota assigned for 2026 if shipment paces similar to recent ones are maintained, significantly increasing the cost of any additional volumes. In this context, the center underscores the strategic importance of diversifying markets and strengthening domestic demand as ways to absorb growing supply and reduce dependence on the Chinese market.

Cepea also notes that, based on 2025 shipment levels, Brazil would fill the quota by August or September, but considering only the last four months of 2025, it would be reached as early as June or July.